I asked AI to analyze the Break Down the One Big Beautiful Bill. You can see the breakdown here: crfb.org/blogs/breaking…

Bottom Line: This plan kicks the can down the road, buying short-term growth at the cost of long-term fiscal instability.

Remember that the negative numbers mean they that section would add to our deficit, essentially spending more than we bring in in revenue.

Final Verdict

- Short-term (2025-2029): Likely economic boost (tax cuts + defense spending), but risks reigniting inflation.

- Long-term (2030s): Debt crisis becomes plausible if growth underperforms or interest rates stay high.

- Biggest vulnerability: Reliance on unpopular spending cuts that may not last.

JUN 4, 2025

The House of Representatives’ Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 reconciliation bill – titled the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 (OBBBA) – would add $2.4 trillion to primary deficits over the coming decade, adding $3.0 trillion to the debt including interest. If its temporary provisions are extended without offsets, we estimate it would add $5.0 trillion to the debt including interest.

The table below is a comprehensive tally of each provision included in the respective committee bills that make up the OBBBA, along with a deficit impact estimate from the Congressional Budget Office. This table will be updated if additional changes are made.