The January 2024 CPI figures are due out tomorrow.

Wall Street is projecting a year on year inflation rate of 2.9%, based on Bloomberg estimates.

The headline rate might actually decline to that level, given how oil prices have shifted since January 2023. On January 31, 2023, the spot price for Brent Crude $84.49/bbl, but on January 31, 2024, the spot price for Brent Crude was $80.53/bbl.

Energy prices have been hugely influential in driving the headline inflation number, and so a year on year decline of roughly $4/bbl for Brent Crude suggests that energy price deflation is still very much an ongoing phenomenon.

As per usual, we will want to pay particular attention to all the little numbers underneath the headline number—the data the BLS doesn’t want you to look at because then you’ll lose faith in the “official” narrative driven by the headline number.