Supreme Court | RoundUp\Glyphosate | Durnell v Monsanto

Today, Fri9Jan26, the Court will meet in private conference to discuss cases including Monsanto v Durnell (No. 24-1068). An order list will be released on early on Mon12Jan26. The 'rule of four' allows any of the nine justices to vote in favor of hearing a case via a writ of certiorari. It is a pretty big deal for Bayer and the litigation that continues.

The key issue centers on whether the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) preempts state failure‑to‑warn claims. The EPA continues to approve glyphosate formulations without cancer warnings, consistent with the assessments of regulatory authorities worldwide. This marks something of an inflection point (again) & Monsanto’s third attempt to reach the Supreme Court. However, this time around, a clear circuit split exists, between the 9th, 11th, and 3rd Circuits.

To be clear, this case does not involve any adjudication of glyphosate science or toxicology. It involves narrow legal question whether FIFRA imposes a duty‑to‑warn requirement that preempts state‑law claims. A grant of certiorari merely signals the Court’s agreement to hear the case. If cert is granted, arguments would likely occur during the 2025‑26 Term (ending June 2026) with a decision following thereafter. Monday’s order list is important because it is a mechanism that typically resolves most petitions for review outright.

On the betting line, I’m no oddsmaker, but Monsanto v. Durnell’s chances appear better than average (above the Court’s 1–2 % baseline) given both the circuit split and the Solicitor General’s recommendation (even if that was poorly written IMHO). A relist option remains possible, but a Solicitor‑General‑backed petition involving clear conflicts makes a grant on Monday’s order list more likely than not, maybe better than a coin‑flip.

<edited 6:48am PDT, typos ‘including’, rephrasing>