SITREP: Day 8 of the Zone A Breach.

Current Status: Day 08 of Structural Insolvency (Zone A). Breach Date: Feb 3, 2026 (RBA Hike to 3.85%).

Since the Structural Integrity Report (SIR) trilogy launched, a cascade of new data has confirmed the diagnosis of Administrative Violence.

1. The Inflation Ghost (NAB Business Survey) Retail price growth slowed to just 0.3% in January. The RBA hiked rates in February to kill an inflation monster that was already dead. They are attacking a graveyard.

2. The Resignation (Westpac Sentiment) Consumer Confidence is stuck at 90.5. Crucially, 80% of respondents expect more hikes despite the pain. This isn’t resilience; it is resignation. The population has priced in the beatings.

3. The Solvency Wall (Roy Morgan Mortgage Data) The stress is no longer theoretical. New data confirms that 24.5%of mortgage holders are now classified as ‘At Risk.’ In Tasmania, it is nearly 30%. This validates our SIR #001 diagnosis: The RBA is not “cooling demand”; they are actively liquidating the balance sheets of specific communities.

4. The Fiscal Pincer (ATO Data) While the RBA attacks future cash flow (Interest), the ATO is attacking past liquidity. Tax office helpline calls have hit record highs as debt recovery (DPNs) ramps up.

5. The Trap (ABS Lending - JUST IN) New December data reveals a “Crack-Up Boom.” The RBA saw headline lending rise (+9.5%) and panicked. But the details reveal a Supply Suicide:

• Business Construction Lending:FELL -1.5%. The supply pipeline is dying.

• Car Loans:FELL -3.7%. The consumption strike is real.

• First Home Buyers:SURGED +15.5% (in value).

The Verdict: Young Australians are taking on maximum leverage just to stand still. The RBA is killing the solution (Construction Supply) while forcing households into “Inelastic Desperation.”

We are documenting the structural break in real-time. Read the SIR Series here: