Silver’s model has attracted a great deal of attention for giving progressively worse chances to Kamala Harris over the last few days, and particularly over the Labor weekend. But all that is happening is that Silver has leant his thumb on the scales with an artificially added “convention” effect, which for reasons that we can only guess at - is moving his model net away from Harris. He has also gone on record to point out that if precisely nothing changed from now, then his model would steadily move back and give Harris a 60-odd percentage point chance on polling day.