Economic History: The extremely low r*s observed just before the beginning of the COVID plague had developed over decades as consequences of slow-moving trend shifts in demography and growth. Thus I find it very unlikely that these would have turned on a dime quickly over the past four years. Thus I think a return to secular stagnation over the course of the next decade is more likely than not:

Josh Davis & al.: Global Natural Rates in the Long Run: Postwar Macro Trends & the Market-Implied r* in 10 Advanced Economies: ‘Trend inflation is treated as an observable and the unobservable natural rate is treated as latent and estimated from a no-arbitrage state-space model, with both macro and finance blocks…. Most of the long-term variation in yields in recent decades has come from shifts in the natural rate and inflation trend components, not from shifts in bond risk premia… We find bigger “headwinds” with natural rates converging near zero or even negative in all 10 countries by 2020, intensifying concerns about secular stagnation and proximity to the effective lower-bound on monetary policy in advanced economies… <ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/n…>