Economics: A remarkably bad manufacturing-conditions survey from New York state. Remarkably bad. Of course, seasonals matter, and are often wrong. Of course, one swallow does not make a summer. But if you weren’t thinking that maybe the Fed is behind the curve and a recession is on the way, you should definitely be thinking so after this:

Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Empire State Manufacturing Survey: ‘Business activity dropped sharply in New York State, according to firms responding to the January 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell twenty-nine points to -43.7, its lowest reading since May 2020. New orders and shipments also posted sharp declines. Unfilled orders continued to shrink significantly, and delivery times continued to shorten. Inventories edged lower. Employment and the average workweek declined modestly. The pace of input price increases picked up somewhat, while the pace of selling price increases was little changed. While firms expect conditions to improve over the next six months, optimism remained subdued… <newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurv…>