Economics: It is absolutely gonzo how many “last mile still to come” in inflation-reduction columns and reports cross my virtual desk these days. The counterpart to that is how very few “all indicators are near their targets, so why isn’t policy near neutral?” takes I see:

Paul Krugman: ‘Core PCE has risen at <2% for the last 6 months; unless forecasts are way off, Friday's data won't change that. More sophisticated efforts to extract the signal from the noise also show us close to target.Where does the idea that there's still a lot of work to do come from? Partly from looking at yoy changes, which are a lagging indicator when inflation is falling fast; partly from the CPI, also lagging bc of how it measures shelter. And partly, I guess, people who were warning sternly about stubborn inflation in early 2023 are having trouble adjusting to the way the problem evaporated. But seriously, time to stop talking about inflation's last mile… <threads.net/@paulkrugman7