Neofascism: I think the smart Gillian Tett gets this wrong:
Gillian Tett: ‘Three key points…. Last month’s clean sweep victory by Trump means that the critical political fight in 2025 will not be across the aisle, Democrats versus Republicans, but inside the Republican party itself…. This Republican-on-Republican battle will be ugly…. Fiscal policy will be an early flashpoint in this fight…. The looming $36tn question is not simply whether the plutocrats or populists will win this fight; it is also whether the bond markets will stay calm while this plays out… <ft.com/content/c088a0c2…>
It is wrong because it is not just the bond and stock markets vs. Republicans who want tax cuts for the rich above all vs. Republicans who want to shrink the deficit vs. the Bannonites who want “to raise taxes on the wealthy… the neoliberal neocons are going to have to pay…” It is wrong because while Trump’s ability to shape executive-branch policy is constrained only by his own indolence and ignorance (which is great) and the Supreme Court (hah!), legislative-branch policy is much more fraught As of February 1, 2025, Republicans will hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate and a 217-215 majority in the House. I do not know what the odds are that they will be able to pass a Reconciliation bill with those low, majorities, but it is far from dead certain that they can pass one, and it is certain that what it could contain will be greatly constrained by the need to get every single person on board. And after Reconciliation? Nothing will pass without at least 30 Democratic votes in the House, which means that Hakeem Jeffries will have to bless whatever passes in some way. Indeed, I am not even sure that Republican will be able to elect a Speaker. I would not be surprised if there are ten centrist Republicans who see this next congress as their last in office who might want to control the Rules Committee and would be willing to make Hakeem Jeffries Speaker were he willing to so appoint them.
In short, Democrats have a role. It is not a two-sided by rather a four-sided cage match inside the Congressional Thunderdome.
