Why is everyone still in it at Colonial?

Fourteen players are within three shots of Jordan Smith's lead entering Round 3. That’s different than the past two years, when it was three or four. Why?

Smith's −10 is normal, and the same 36-hole Colonial leader score as 2024. Compression, however, is happening at the other end. The field average through two rounds is −1.76, compared to +0.16 last year and +1.53 in 2024. The cut line moved from +3 in 2024 and even par in 2025 to −2 this year. Soft conditions from Thursday’s rain didn't lower the ceiling, but they did raise the floor.

The hole by hole data shows eight holes on the course playing easier than their average the last two-years. Most of those are the bogey holes that normally separate the field. Hole 14, historically a bogey magnet, is playing 0.18 strokes easier this year. Hole 17, another separating hole, is 0.175 strokes easier. When the bogey holes stop being bogey holes, the players who would normally drop shots stay in the pack.

The Horrible Horseshoe—holes 3–4–5—typically play +0.60 over par per round. This week they were +0.34 in Round 1 and +0.40 in Round 2, and trending harder as the course firms. With Saturday’s hot, dry and potentially windy conditions, the Horseshoe is likely to be closer to its historical difficulty.

Will we have a clustered finish? The history says probably not. Look for the separation to start as Round 3 gets underway on Saturday and conditions start allowing players at the top to separate.