Spain is set to overtake Italy and become the EU’s 3rd-largest economy within the next 15 years.

From 2023 to 2025, Spain’s GDP expanded by 9%, while Italy grew only 2.3% — meaning Spain grew almost 4x faster.

And the European Commission expects the gap to continue in 2026, with Spain growing 2.4% versus only 0.5% for Italy — almost 5x faster.

The demographic gap is just as important:

• Spain’s population and labour force are still growing, while Italy’s are declining.

• Latin Americans account for almost 48% of Spain’s immigrant population, Europeans for around 27%, and together they represent roughly three-quarters of all immigrants in Spain — while Italy faces one of Europe’s deepest demographic declines.

If Spain maintains a nominal growth advantage of 2–3 percentage points per year, it could overtake Italy around 2036–2040.

Even under a more conservative scenario, with a smaller but sustained growth advantage, Spain could still overtake Italy around 2041–2045.