“Scary accurate” essay from January 2025 on China v US in AI. We wouldn’t be where we are now if people had listened.

In it I warned

•  that the US would not achieve a decisive victory in AI over China if they continued to focus largely on LLMs

• that we would instead converge on a tie

• that the lack of a technical moat would mean that companies like OpenAI would remain unprofitable.

• that Nvidia would be vulnerable

• that the CHIPS act would backfire, without doing much to hold China back

• that models will continue to get more efficient and less expensive, but that hallucinations and reliability problems will persist.

• that racing endlessly around LLMs would sap resources that could instead go into developing more original ideas.

I wish people had listened.