War scenarios shifted dramatically towards S1 (swift resolution) today. Trump offered up a fat TACO which seems to have drawn the Iranians to the dinner table. Oil’s fair value dropped dramatically and we overrode our long quant signals to exit our oil positions. Sometimes you thank an asset for its contribution and move on. Thanks oil :) We are not out of the woods yet, but risk markets are going to risk and who the hell knows what gold is going to do. Should be positive but the disconnect between paper and physical markets seems to be playing havoc with ETF price discovery. We remain cautious and flat the asset despite the structurally attractive backdrop. See scenarios for more detail -