Summer of 2026 vs. 1976 II

As promised, herewith my Sunday morning update on the situtation using the HadCET Central England Temperature Record as the yardstick by which we shall judge matters. I’m sticking to a consideration of the daily maximum coz sensationalism in terms of breaking records is what it’s all about these days even through these are essentially meaningless statistics. In effect, the Met Office is turning outlying data points that are usually adjusted or discarded into key results; a strange practice.

My eyeballs suggest largely similar runs of hot days, with the hottest days of 2026 maybe just pipping 1976. This is borne out by a paired samples t-test for the period May 1st - June 26th, which returns a borderline p-value of p=0.045. So, yes, if we stick to the ubiquitous 95% confidence interval for settling things statistical, then we can hand on wallet state that 2026 is winning - just!

That being said, temperatures here in record-breaking RNAS Somerset have been dropping rapidly since stonking Thursday, whereas this is the period when 1976 really got going. I’m not keen on placing my betting money at this stage.

Kettle On!

Source: metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs…