A Note on Space Stocks

Space stocks are running hot today on the Artemis news. I get it. The headlines are exciting. But let's talk about what actually happened.

NASA just elevated SpaceX over Boeing on the moon mission. That's not a win for public space stocks. That's a win for SpaceX. The public names are getting a sympathy pop on a headline that makes their biggest competitor even more dominant.

Let's look at the reality.

SpaceX controls 82% of the global commercial launch market. They handled 85% of all US orbital launches in 2025. Starlink has over 9 million subscribers and is pulling in $10B a year in revenue. They just landed the $2B Golden Dome missile defense contract. And now NASA handed them Boeing's seat on Artemis.

Every public space stock combined doesn't touch SpaceX's revenue. Not even close.

RKLB is the best of the bunch. Real business, $602M in revenue, $1.85B backlog. But at $40B market cap it's a rounding error next to SpaceX. LUNR gets some lunar contracts but SpaceX just took the prime seat on the moon mission. ASTS is trying to compete with Starlink on satellite broadband while being pre-revenue against a company doing $10B a year. RDW, PL, BKSY, FLY are niche players fighting for scraps.

Now the big one. SpaceX filed to go public. Targeting a $1.75T valuation. That would make it the largest IPO in history. When that hits the market, every institutional dollar currently parked in RKLB, LUNR, ASTS as "space exposure" proxy trades rotates into the real thing. That's selling pressure across the board on every public space name.

These stocks are running today. That's a gift. If you're holding space names, this rally is your window to plan exits. Trim into strength. The SpaceX IPO is coming and when it lands, these become second-tier overnight.

I'm not saying space is a bad sector. I'm saying there's one company that owns it and it's about to go public. Plan accordingly.