Burnham still needs the left and Muslims - so he will have to address Gaza: commentary.

It’s good that Andy Burnham has soundly beaten Reform UK in Makerfield. But no one should be euphoric about this result.

First, although 54 per cent of voters backed Burnham, only 57 per cent of the electorate voted despite the intensive Labour, Reform and Restore Britain campaigns. So Burnham’s vote amounted to about 30 per cent of registered voters, compared to 42 per cent who abstained - hardly a ringing endorsement.

Second, while Green and Lib Dem voters fell in behind Labour in this exceptional by-election, it cannot take them for granted in future by-elections, local elections and the coming general election. Labour is a deeply damaged brand and even if Burnham rescues it a little, it is unlikely to be able to win a general election on its own.

Reform has been weakened a little but it remains strong. The partial revival of the Conservatives, demonstrated in their Scottish by-election victory, could actually enable a far-right government—as their leader has suggested. And Restore may not damage the Reform vote in the same way in a wider election.

So Burnham still needs the left and Muslim voters whom Starmer has alienated—two essential parts of Labour’s former coalition. And contrary to the wishful thinking of the right-wing Labour group Think Labour (notorious under their former name, Labour Together), although Muslim voters may care about the cost of living and the NHS just like everyone else, Gaza is a question of identity for many of them and no retail offer will win them back. Likewise for the left who have flocked to Zack Polanski’s dynamic Greens in the wake of the Gaza genocide.

Burnham will have to make a fundamental break from Labour’s—and his own—record and repudiate Israel, or he will go into the general election with his left hand tied behind his back.