Thoughtful (and generous) summary (and extension) by Roger Pielke Jr. of our new preprint: “The empirically inscrutable climate-economy relationship”.

tl;dr: “So the top-down researcher has no way out. Let the climate-economy relationship vary as much as it actually varies, and it cannot be modeled. Hold it fixed, and the model can generate a headline-producing result, but that result has no real-world meaning in any specific place.” Cogent summary by Roger of our (96-page) paper’s central point. Paper here: osf.io/preprints/socarx…

We argue that climate economics needs to take a hard turn away from trying to get ever better estimates of damages with cleverer and cleverer econometrics, and towards trying to inform climate policy under deep, irreducible uncertainty.