I would not waste a lot of energy freaking out over the $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran that is supposedly included in the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). This is vaporware, just like all the promises of countless billions in aid to rebuild Gaza. It’s the kind of thing that Trump likes to say but the US will never pay up, and it’s doubtful anyone else will either. The Gulf states are still sore at Iran for attacking them; I don’t see much chance that they will suddenly subsidize Iranian rebuilding efforts.

As for the rest of the MOU: I’m reserving comment until we see the details. Much of what we’ve heard so far is confusing, vague, and contradictory. Neither Trump nor Tehran can be trusted to give an accurate account. Let’s wait until we can read the fine print, although even then there is a real risk of secret codicils or unwritten understandings.

And, of course, the MOU is liable to fall apart even before it’s officially signed. The situation remains volatile and tense, and there is no trust on either side. I will believe the MOU is for real once tankers start moving in and out of the Strait of Hormuz without any attempt to stop them by either the US or Iran.