My next post will be a review of my 2024 predictions made in 2023, what I learned from the predictions I got wrong, as well as make upcoming 2025 predictions.

In the near future I will have a post about the terrible predictions I made in the past and what I learned from them to grow my worldview. No one’s perfect nor will ever be perfect; what matters is using recursive prediction as a grounding mechanism to become more accurate over time (i.e. make predictions, for the ones you get wrong update your worldview to try to account for it, and do this consistently over years and decades).

Sometime thereafter I will take a look at the most popular posts of some large Substack accounts and look at the predictions they made in them, and see how well they correspond to reality. My belief is they’re going to be very wrong and ugly in general.

Now, it’s fine being wrong about predictions as long as one is transparent about one’s thought process and what one learned from the mistake to grow from it. Almost no one does this, and the readers deserve the awful and endless culture-war slop they get because they don’t hold the writer’s feet to the fire about them either.

Why go through this process? Because those supporting Trump, Musk, Vance, Thiel, Vivek etc. (the “counter-elite”) in 2024 as a mindless cheerleader should be held to account and either update their worldviews accordingly - which is going to need a root-level overhaul - or fade into irrelevance. It’s too easy to mock the shitlibs and the NPCs as they’ve already been exposed for being pathetic, weak, heart-attack-jab taking weaklings and shills — now the target goes higher.