I really love Nuance Pill - he’s got a great eye for fun issues, a rigorous and really solid backing for any position he takes, and he’s apparently able to get AI’s to generate endless manifestations of Chads surrounded by adoring (but always vaguely Eastern European looking) women, which is fun.

But let’s look seriously at what a “Chadopoly” might proxy to - I’d say it proxies to something like a Pareto distribution. If we can say “20% of guys are having 80% of the sex,” I think we could unfurl our “Mission Accomplished” banners and celebrate the Chadopoly.

Let’s begin.

First, let us consider by partners. The largest slice of people have only 1 sexual partner in their lives, so the “body count” allocation certainly has to be something like the top 20% having 80%+ of the distinct sexual partners. Indeed, the graphs are heavily right skewed and demonstrate kurtosis, supporting this notion (see figure 1).

Second, let's consider by sexual incidence per unit time.

Per Spiegelhalter’s Sex by Numbers, where he pulls from multiple data sources and grades them, the best quality data sources show people overall having sex a median of ~3 times per month, with the top quintile at 5-6. For coupled people, it goes up to 5-6 at the median.

This says to us straightaway there’s something like a bimodal distribution, with coupled people having at least twice as much, which immediately implies a 66% / 33% distribution at the minimum.

I’d add that “5-6” is a really low number, too (and it’s true even confined to younger ages).

“Number of partners” follows a fat-tailed distribution rather than a normal distribution, and it’s pretty likely “number of times you have sex per time interval” does, too.

Certainly in my own and among the people I know this info for, 5-6 times a month is pretty laughable, and an OOM or more too low.

If me and my cohort is top 5% or so, this implies that a reasonable fat tailed distribution would end with the top 20% having at least 75%+ of the sex of the higher bimodal “sex bin” - close enough in my book! (see figure 2).

Granted, this is just swagging with some napkin math for fun, but it seems pretty reasonable.

And lo! The Chadopoly is born!