This Farage resignation thing is a complicated one. He's slightly channelling the energy of Tory David Davis here who resigned to force a by election in 2008 on the subject of civil liberties. At the time this was seen as quixotic at best and downright stupid at worst. Farage is playing a cannier game. He's essentially trying to set up a "man of the people against the establishment" by election. He's also got at least one eye on what Trump did as soon as he got into office the first time in 2017. He'd previously said he'd release his tax returns once elected. But once in office he then claimed that because he'd won the election the people had spoken and he didn't need to release them because he's been elected despite not releasing them before. There's a sort of logic to it. If you're a populist demagogue.

So this is a dangerous moment. Farage is aping his political idol. If he wins I'm certain he'll then claim that the people have spoken and he no longer needs to answer any more questions about the £5m or the houses or any other bungs he might have received.

His problem is we're not in the US system. If he wins, the parliamentary inquiry will resume. And if they find him guilty he'll be suspended. And if he's suspended for more than 9 days he can be recalled again. None of that changes. He's not Trump and he's not the most powerful man in the world. He's an MP for a provincial seaside town in England. Totally different situation.

I'd put money on him winning. But I don't think it will close all of this down.

And if he loses he'll look ridiculous and his career is then probably over.

So it's a big risk. My guess is he's made peace with potentially losing and is already making plans for a post-politics career.