The prospect of a by-election in Makerfield means that the immediate jeopardy around Keir Starmer’s premiership has passed. The launch of a leadership challenge by Ers Streeting or anyone else feels unlikely unless and until that by -election delivers Andy Burnham back to Eestmonsyer. And if it does it seems unlikely that either Streeting or Rayner could beat Burnham in a leadership election. Even Starmer may not stand in his way.

Instead the leadership ambitions of others rest on the possibility that Burnham may not actually win the Makerfield by-election. Were that to happen things get very messy for Labour. That would be the moment for a leadership contest. But would it be obvious that changing leader would improve Labour prospects at a General Election? Burnham’s fate is an enormous litmus test for whether Labour has any hope of a 2nd term. And if Burnham can’t win the party may choose to stick with Starmer and leave a leadership contest for what happens after the next general election.

Oddly Starmer is in a better political position now than a week ago as dreadful election results began to emerge. He has a Hail Mary moment for a reshuffle following Streetjng’s resignation. He could make some bold moves in the hope that he ends up staying on as PM. For Starmer the gamble is Butnham’s not his.