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Final asset for $ELME now under contract - ELME Bethesda for $59m, $305k per unit and looks like a low / mid 5% cap rate. This is a slight discount to management’s fair value estimate at Q4 2025 (2.5% discount to $60.5m) but ~10% ahead of where I had estimated its value.

The buyer is CAPREIT - Canada’s largest apartment REIT - so not a lot of concerns around the buyer’s ability to perform. Deposit is pretty low and inspection period ends June 3rd with a closing long-stop date of July 9th. So not guaranteed to go through but if CAPREIT agreed to this timeline, I’d guess they are pretty confident they know the asset and there will be limited “deal breaker” surprises.

First week of June now becomes a key timeframe for this liquidation as inspection periods for both Riverside and Bethesda end. If buyers are going to pull out or re-trade, that’s the most likely time.

With all the remaining properties now under contract, few moving pieces left. I estimate net liquidating distributions of $2.29 per share, which is in-line with management’s Q1 2026 net assets in liquidation and near the upper end of their (downwardly-revised) estimate of liquidating distributions of $2.07 - $2.35 per share.

At $2.06 per share pre-market, it trades at a ~10% discount. If liquidated in the next 6 - 9 months that would yield a 15% - 24% annualized return.

In an uncertain macro environment and frothy equity market, feels like a not terrible special situations position and I plan to buy some more if I can get it at these levels (to make an approximately full ~5% position from a sub-scale ~3% position).

The major remaining risks are sales under contract falling out or getting re-traded and costs overrunning management projections.

ELME provided an update on their liquidation along with filing their 10-Q.

The bad:

  • They reduced their range for estimated liquidation distribution proceeds to $2.07 - $2.35 per share from $2.35 - $2.80 per share (-14% at the midpoint)

  • Net assets in liquidation declined to $2.29 per share from $2.69 per share (-15%)

May 29
at
1:28 PM
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