Thanksgiving after Dunkirk

When I first heard the sketchy details of the “Surrender”, I remarked to my partner that I was “incandescent with rage”, despite acknowledging that I couldn’t define the word incandescent with any precision. But the fury I felt was genuine, and Senator Schumer and 8 cowards were its target.  I thought that, once again, the progressives had been betrayed by centrist assholes who endlessly ask for money.

48 hours later, thanks in large part to Greg Dworkin and Heather Cox Richardson (many, many thanks to both of them, for many, many reasons), I am persuaded that I was completely wrong and that this was the best possible resolution of the Shutdown and, indeed, that it is masterpiece of politic craftsmanship. So, instead of a barrage of expletives, I want to give a tip of the hat to Senator Schumer and kudos to the courage of the 8 senators who for providing cover for their colleagues.

Someone, I think Dworkin, said this is Dunkirk not Appomattox, an apt metaphor. This should not be viewed as an unconditional, embittering surrender but rather a strategic withdrawal, significantly improving the prospects for favorable outcomes.

Please consider the following:

1. The Shutdown had to end at some point — workers have to paid, services have to be provided, assistance had to be supplied. To take steps to re-open the government is not Surrender; it in fact should be viewed as good governance and good politics.

2. Who would one prefer shaping the terms and timing of the shutdown’s conclusion?

a. If one were reliant on the Senate Republicans alone to re-open the government, the filibuster would have to go. This method of resolution would carry with it the poisonous assurance that Trump would be able to enact his “campaign reforms” in time for the 2026 elections.  The Democrats would have achieved nothing.

b. A Trump/Johnson resolution would prove the worst of all possible worlds. Maximum pain, maximum delay. A CR ending in January; rinse and repeat in a cycle of ratcheting pain. Delay is in Trump’s obvious interest; indeed the collapse of government while he controls the military might well appeal to Trump and his henchmen. At some point, if the Democrats were to remain unanimous in their opposition, they become complicit in the continuation of this evil and pain.

c. But, instead of the horrible outcomes above, the Democrats maximized their hand,  controlling the timing and substance of the resolution.

1. In terms of timing, the Shutdown was lengthy and painful, but long enough for the public to grok who was evil, who was cowardly, and who, in the end, was both kind and responsible.  It was also long enough for the Democratic Governors to show their bona fides.

a. Should there be a second shutdown, the Democrats enter the fray in a much stronger position — Epstein will have dominated the news; Trump’s mental and physical decline will continue;  the economic and social distress that Trump’s policies create will also continue. Couple this with an adverse ruling on the tariffs, and we may have graphic  illustrations of the term “incandescent with rage.”

2. In terms of substance, the Democrats seemingly did not get a lot in exchange for being the responsible adults. Ok, being in the minority sucks.  But, what they got is significant, particularly with respect to next year’s elections.

a. The procedure adopted requires that the House come back in session.  The House discharge petition concerning the release of the Epstein files then will be signed at the earliest possible moment.  Every GOP House member will be on the record — protect the pedophiles or break from Trump? This would seem a toxic choice for all Republican candidates, fatal for many, next fall.

b. Throughout the shutdown, the Democrats displayed remarkable discipline, holding ranks and, for the most part, staying on message. That discipline should prove helpful in the battles ahead. Given the differing positions of House and Senate GOP, one would expect the fracturing of that party to continue in increasingly venomous and visible terms. It would be most unhelpful if the Democrats were to fracture further on this issue.

c. The Senate vote on the ACA subsidies is not nothing. Having Republicans on the record on this issue should prove most helpful, say to someone like Sherrod Brown.

d. I am admittedly not well-versed on the appropriations aspect of the deal, but it seems shrewd, taking a number of tendentious votes past the 2026 elections. Despite everything, the GOP/Trumpites apparently still believe that national security is a winning issue for them, and this resolution apparently reduces the field of opportunities for this particular vein of mendacity.

So, to game it out, the Democrats should decisively win Thanksgiving Day, a most important day for next year’s elections. The public’s overall view of the Shutdown is favorable to the Democrats. Families are not debating who is responsible for Tommy’s flight being cancelled. The specter of food insecurity is now apparent to all, and alleviated in part for many. The ground the Maga relatives must defend will concern the release of the Epstein files, the protection of rich pederasts, the covering up of heinous crimes, and rudimentary concepts of justice and fairness.

And, speaking as an oldster, Thanksgiving is one of few times when intergeneration discussion on serious issues occurs and one of the few opportunities to persuade others. Thus, it is an important date for the 2026 elections — change moves outward from kith and kin. Let’s make the most of it — not by expressions of anger at other Democrats but by persuading our family and friends to act with generosity and kindness and resolve.