A major Latvian news outlet has published an article based on my analysis titled: “Three Reasons Why Russia May Attack the Baltic States.”

The article draws on arguments I have made regarding russia’s imperial ambitions and the growing strategic risks facing NATO’s eastern flank.

If the West fails to stop russia in Ukraine, the risk to Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania will rise significantly.

The cheapest and most effective way to prevent a wider war in Europe is to ensure that russia is decisively defeated in Ukraine.

Ukraine is not only defending its own freedom. It is defending the security architecture of Europe and the credibility of NATO itself.

Absolutely. Here is a post based on the Latvian article and the broader argument that the Baltic states could be the next target if russia is not stopped in Ukraine.

A major Latvian news outlet has published an article based on my analysis titled: “Three Reasons Why Russia May Attack the Baltic States.”

This is not alarmism. It is a sober assessment of how imperial powers behave when aggression goes unpunished.

If the West fails to stop russia in Ukraine, the risk to Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania will rise significantly.

Here are three reasons why.

1. Putin does not hide his imperial ambitions.

The Kremlin has never accepted the collapse of the Soviet empire. Ukraine is only one step in a broader effort to restore control over former territories.

For putin, this war was never about NATO, the russian language, or “denazification.” Those were propaganda slogans.

The real issue is that Ukraine chose a European path and rejected subordination to Moscow.

The Baltic states made the same choice.

2. The Baltic states are central to Putin’s historical worldview.

Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were once part of both the russian empire and the Soviet Union.

Their success as democratic, prosperous members of NATO and the European Union is a direct refutation of the Kremlin’s narrative that countries near russia must remain in Moscow’s orbit.

Their independence is proof that freedom and sovereignty are possible.

That is precisely why the Kremlin views them as a strategic and ideological threat.

3. Putin may eventually test NATO’s resolve.

Autocrats often push until they encounter firm resistance.

If the West demonstrates weakness in Ukraine, the Kremlin may conclude that NATO lacks the political will to defend its eastern members.

A limited provocation against the Baltic states could be used to test whether Article 5 is a real commitment or merely words on paper.

The stakes could not be higher.

Ukraine is not only defending its own freedom.

It is defending the security architecture of Europe.

It is defending the principle that borders cannot be changed by force.

And it is defending the credibility of NATO itself.

The lesson is simple.

The cheapest and most effective way to prevent a wider war in Europe is to ensure that russia is decisively defeated in Ukraine.

If the world wants peace in the Baltic region, it must help Ukraine win now.