The Republican primaries in Texas confirmed a growing trend: candidates who fall out of Trump’s favor are losing in red states. Senator John Cornyn, who has represented Texans in the U.S. Senate since 2002, suffered a massive defeat in the “selection round” to Attorney General Ken Paxton, whom Trump endorsed shortly beforehand.

Cornyn had the backing of other senators. He had tens of millions of dollars in advertising. He had decades of experience in Washington and a reputation as an effective conservative. None of it mattered. The decisive factor was Trump’s word. The president accused the senator of insufficient loyalty and urged voters to support his opponent. A single social media post was enough to send Ken Paxton’s support soaring in virtually every county in the state. In the end, he won by nearly 30%.

Paxton’s reputation within his own party is, to put it mildly, controversial. His career has been stained by corruption scandals, fraud allegations, and accusations of abuse of power. Last year, Texas was rocked by another drama: Paxton’s wife, a state legislator, accused him of infidelity and filed for divorce. She did not support him in the primaries. The president did.

A few thoughts here. Clearly, Donald Trump still maintains unquestioned authority among the majority of Republican voters despite rising gas prices and some other developments unpopular with his base.

At the same time, it will be interesting to watch how John Cornyn’s defeat affects Trump’s relationship with Congress over the next six months. Cornyn became the third member of Congress to lose a primary after being criticized by Trump. Will this discourage Republicans from opposing the president, or will it deepen divisions within the party? We will likely see the answer in upcoming congressional votes.

And perhaps most importantly: will Trump’s gamble pay off in the general election this November? Many Republicans in Congress openly expressed disappointment with the president’s decision. Ken Paxton will now face young Democrat James Talarico, and it will not be easy for him to move beyond the MAGA base and win over moderate or independent voters in Texas. Part of the party believed Cornyn would have had a much easier — and cheaper — path to victory.

One thing we know for certain: the Senate will now have more “lame-duck” Republicans whose terms end in January 2027. Senators John Cornyn and Bill Cassidy lost their primaries in their respective states. Joining them are Senators Thom Tillis, Mitch McConnell, Joni Ernst, Cynthia Lummis, and Steve Daines, who decided not to seek reelection. That makes seven. Not all of them are critical of Trump. But they will certainly be freer in their decisions, both on domestic and foreign policy.

Author: Ostap Yarysh