CL – Felix Bautista, BAL (ADP – 56.9)

In his first season in the majors, Bautista has more success than expected based on his slow path to the majors at age 26. He went 7-18 with a 3.23 ERA in the minors over seven seasons with 258 strikeouts over 222.2 innings.

Heading into 2022, Bautista had only 31.2 innings of experience between AA (13.1 – 0.68 ERA) and AAA (18.1 – 2.45 ERA). His command (5.1 walks per nine) held back his development and opportunities to close games (18 saves in the minors). With Baltimore, batters only hit .167 against him, thanks to an electric fastball (99.2 mph) and unhittable split-finger pitch (.086 BAA with 60 strikeouts and one walk over 93 at-bats). The Orioles handed him the closing job at the trade deadline, leading to 13 saves in 14 chances with a 3.24 ERA and 36 strikeouts over 25 innings.

The following season, he was the third most-valuable fantasy pitcher by fantasyanalyst.substack… (7.00) after going 8-2 with a 1.48 ERA, 0.918 WHIP, and 110 strikeouts over 61.0 innings. Bautista had six blown saves in his 39 chances. He developed a right elbow injury in late August, leading to TJ surgery on October 9th in 2023. Four months later, a second procedure was needed to clean his elbow, costing him the following season.

His sinker (.161 BAA) averaged 99.6 mph when last on a big league mound. Bautista dominated again with his split-finger fastball (.122 BAA with 51 strikeouts over 74 at-bats)

Fantasy Outlook: Based on his price point in early drafts, the high-stakes fantasy market expects him to hit the ground running in 2025. Baltimore stated in late January that Bautista would be eased into spring training while expecting him to be ready for opening day. His 18-month full recovery date is April 9th, just for reference. I expect his velocity to be intact, but Bautista must regain his command to continue his success pre-injury. I’m waiting to see him on the mound this spring before deciding on his draft ranking for this year. A combination of 100+ strikeouts and over 40 saves does have a winning ring to it.