Jobless claims drop further in July

Initial claims came in at 208K for the week, which is 8K below the weekly forecast of 216K. Last week’s report was revised up by 1K to 216K. This is the fourth weekly report below 220K.

The 4-week average for initial claims fell to 214K, the lowest since May 28th. After a brief start-of-summer spike, we’ve settled back down.

Continuing claims fell week-over-week to 1.805M, and beat the forecast of 1.820M by 15K. Last week was initially recorded at 1.814M but has been revised up by 7K to 1.821M.

The rolling 4-week average for continuing claims rose by 1K to 1.811M. This is the highest level since April and shows there is still some slack in the hiring environment.

The rise in initial claims at the start of the summer is responsible for part of this recent increase. For context, our 2026 year-to-date average of 1.818M is a major improvement over the same period last year (1.886M), and the weekly numbers may already be rolling over.