OK, here's the Google setup right now.

I expect Alphabet shares to fall much further. There's no valuation support here. Just as the multiple re-rated higher on Gemini 3 Pro reaching SOTA, it will now re-rate lower on Sundar's incompetent rambling answer to why Google is falling behind in frontier AI and the AI model progress uncertainty.

Gemini 3.5 Pro is obviously a bad model given the look ahead to Gemini 4.

Gemini 4 is the key question and likely many months away. I put the odds of Gemini 4 disappointing at 50%, given all the key AI talent departures. If it does disappoint, the stock will tank again.

If Gemini 4 is good and SOTA, you can re-buy right then at a better risk-reward setup.

Till then, the multiple compresses on uncertainty for the next few months.