I'm trying to wrap my head around this, and it's extremely hard. What do we do if bombs learn to fly? What if they already have?

While the US is doing photo ops while switching out its cruise missiles for JDAMs, its tour deforce is obscuring the most shocking news of this war.

The evidence is mounting day by day, no matter how many videos CNN is forced to take down. You can't stop the internet from releasing and re-releasing intelligence.

Shahed's bigger brother Arash-2 is in use, so much is clear now. And while the current specs are not crystal-clear, yet, the goal of getting a JDAM to fly for cheap without risking a bomber has the potential to disrupt the core paradigm of late-stage air war.

Air wars need to be started by using precise stand-off munition to perform SEAD, so that stealth fighters can follow without being at too high of a risk of being shot from the sky. After that, you (US & Israel for example) use stealth bombers, and only after they have degraded most of the air defense can the attacker allow themselves to use superheavy bobers like the B2 to deliver cheap bombs en masse.

That's how the past decades of air war have been fought.

What Iran is developing is abomb that needs no bomber.

I hope I don't need to repeat the implications of this spreading. The fact that strategic strikes can be performed in the manner of a single-bomb atomization is unheard of, and so is bombing without a bomber.

The whole world is in a missile crisis, and Iran is developing - or worse, has developed - the most viable solution to long-range stratekic strike.

This weapon, more and more likely to be made from Shahed parts and materials, using the same motor, built in the same "unkillable" shop-style distributed manner is not reserved to Iran. It's open to everyone.

Imagine bombs with deliberate post-intercept effects (causing collateral damage no matter whether you intercept them or not), costing no more than $50.000, with a nominal range of 2.000 km (the airframe might even allow for 2.500 km nominal) appearing in our skies, layered with masses of decoys and smaller drones like Shaheds.

Iran can do this, Russia can do this after stockpiling (e.g. during a seizefire), China can do this, North Korea can do this, and we are NOT ready.

Neither to counter this system, nor to threaten credible retaliation.

It's not impossible if we build the right kind of program. No country in Europe has anything that remotely works to build what's needed against this and future threats, and I'm not just saying that. Challenge me, please! This needs a whole-of-

Government (no silos!),

Society, and

Economy approach to be countered.

Now!

💪

Despite all of the craziness right now, I hope that you all have a good end of your week and can rest a little. I know we all need it.