Is a Government Shutdown the Path to Social Unrest?
The rhetoric regarding a possible government shutdown has intensified, leading to a speculative hypothesis - an allowed shutdown could act as the catalyst for ‘Civil War.’
Headlines & Snippets:
House Republicans reject their own funding bill with a shutdown around the corner (NBC)
Thirteen days before money runs out for the federal government, there is still no bipartisan plan to stave off a shutdown.As government shutdown looms, lawmakers weigh in on SAVE Act proposals (CBS)
The "SAVE Act", would mandate proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections for new voters.Speculation:
In a contentious election year, a federal government shutdown that disrupts funding for housing, food assistance, and cash aid—especially for immigrants—could act as a catalyst for social unrest. If large numbers of people faced immediate financial hardship, desperation could lead some to engage in criminal activities to meet their needs.
This situation would likely be exacerbated by existing societal divisions and anxieties about immigration. If the narrative surrounding the shutdown emphasizes a Left versus Right conflict—particularly regarding funding tied to voter ID laws or immigration policy—it could intensify tensions.
Social unrest may arise not only from those directly affected but also from broader segments of the population feeling threatened or frustrated by the political implications. In such a polarized environment, any disruption in essential services could serve as a flashpoint, potentially leading to protests or other forms of social unrest.
Furthermore, a government shutdown could impact banks facing challenges with toxic commercial loans. During a shutdown, uncertainty in the economy can lead to decreased consumer confidence and spending, exacerbating issues for banks.
In effect, a perfect financial storm would be the catalyst - creating desperation among migrants, as well as for many Americans, banking issues and thereby affecting a broader swath of the population, all fueled by divisive election rhetoric.
[Analyst note: the legislative hurtle is supposedly The Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, which would require voters to provide a REAL ID, or Passport. Ostensibly this would make sense, but also understand this is tied to the digital ID agenda as both REAL ID and passports are moving toward more captured biometrics and digital versions. The TSA has piloted digital REAL IDs at their checkpoints since 2022.]
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