Blue line = Total NFP

Red line = Goods-Producing NFP

Historically, manufacturing and construction payrolls tend to peak ahead of total payrolls, or services employment. Right now, goods-producing NFP has already peaked and is entering a slowdown phase. Today’s release may confirm that trend.

If confirmed, it could trigger a sharp downside swing in rates. With the 5-year yield testing a key breakout level, I think the trajectory points toward lower rates unless NFP surprises to the upside above +130k.