wrote earlier that the Dec Fed cut matters, we actually got a decent Fed put signal last Friday from Williams.
most indicators point to an oversold market (RSI, Fear & Greed, sentiment gauges) except for the VIX curve, which hasn’t inverted yet.
I think we’ve hit the first wave of panic, so I added risk today. prefer Samsung Elec, GOOGL, BTC, SOXX on the equity side, and GOOGL / META / AMZN jumbo deals in credit.
there could be a second wave next month, but I’d be adding again on a plunge — especially when the front-end VIX curve inverts.
24300s could be the short-term bottom for NQ. NVDA earnings might only give the market 1–2 days of noise, but the real driver is what the Fed thinks about the current tight STIR pricing and whether they signal a Dec cut. That will decide if the turn happens at 24300 or if we go lower toward 22800.
Personally, I think 23000–22800 is the mo…
Nov 24
at
12:59 AM
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