Most of the events this month have been clearly dovish, yet the 2yr has still failed to break below the 3.5% area. I think we need something far more disruptive to push the terminal rate below 3% such as consecutive negative NFP prints, a credit crunch, or a major equity selloff. Until then, I am still leaning toward a sell on strength approach in US rates.

And I remain constructive on risk assets, especially TMT and NDX. I have been consistent this year in arguing that tariffs themselves do not trigger a surge in inflation, and the Fed is gradually acknowledging that they were wrong, with inflation likely to continue trending lower next year. What does that imply? The Fed put is effectively back. With terminal rates priced around 3%, the Fed has ample room to step in if sth goes wrong and support the market. Stay alert to short term corrections, but do not clear out equity positions. Buy the dip.