GulfSentinel, June 16, 17:05 UTC. Three chokepoints. Three different stories.

Hormuz: ELEVATED. Deal announced. Iran retains disruption capability. Full normalization weeks to months away. US intelligence confirms Iran can still effectively shut Strait access.

Bab el-Mandeb: HIGH. Houthis announced fourth phase escalation today — targeting ships with Israeli port connections. Same day as the Iran deal celebration. Shipping rerouting around Africa has been ongoing for nearly two years.

Suez Canal: ELEVATED. Oil tanker traffic up 28% in April as Hormuz alternative. Elevated volume creating operational pressure on the backup route.

The market priced one deal on one chokepoint. The other two didn't get the memo.

The physical clock and the diplomatic clock are still on different schedules. Check gulfsentinel.net before acting on any of this.

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