The West, without Washington, has twice the PPP GDP of the US. (That is, Europe plus Canada, Australasia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore.)

Likely this grouping will quietly follow the lead of, or coordinate around, the EU. The EU is an organisation that has done the nearly impossible, by drawing together and managing to hold together, mostly, a diverse group of sovereign states over decades. The EU upholds the values of the West. Their operating system is built on pragmatism, institutions and trust.

The future looks like a simple tale waiting to unfold. It will take a few years to coalesce but it is getting up to speed fast from a standing start.

The West without Washington will quietly develop and deepen relationships between themselves. Not excluding Washington but not centring Washington. And certainly no longer simply following Washington’s lead.

Trump will create drama and then will be gone. The US will become very, very nice to the rest of the West. The West without Washington will never let the US return to the place where it was, because that was based on demonstrably misplaced strategic trust.

The US will be the biggest loser in this silliness, imo. But it may be that their sacrifice will be to the benefit of the international community and to the benefit of the international rules based order.

As a footnote, I don’t understand why anyone sees Russia as a Mearsheimer-style Great Power - apart from belligerence and nuclear missiles they can’t use, their PPP GDP is around 1/8 of the West excluding the US. They will get Ukraine? I doubt it; it is full of Ukrainians - and that army is likely to become the core of the European military one day.