A brilliant analysis. But a very bleak picture unless there is ..not just regime change..., but fundemental redirection of national sentiment in both the region and the western world. Fundemtally a realization that much greater empathy for the "other", I.e. the perceived enemy, is the pragmatic path to a better world. In contrast, the standard response of basing security on ever more sophisticated weapons is a hopelessly romantic path to mutual destruction.

The tragedy of the modern world is that the optional, pragmatic strategy is also the most unlikely one!

Faced with a terribly one-sided military situation, including a nuclear armed enemy nearby which is dedicated to its destruction, the motivation for Iran to obtain nuclear weapon parity with Israel is overwhelming. Again, the unintended consequence and demonstration of the limits of US power.