Yeah good essay- Agree on foxes versus hedgehogs, I’ve made the exact same point before that while a fox may be indvidually more likely to be correct, a hedgehog, but developing specific theories and approaches, might be making a bigger correction to society as a whole being correct.

One can use an analogy from the literature on index funds and think of those who passively predict on the basis of existing consensus as in some sense engaged in epistemic free-riding. My view is that “double-booking”- having two sets of beliefs- a personal set, and a consensus informed set- with different uses on different occasions is necessary.

philosophybear.substack…