This is a really helpful way to conceptualize how we should evaluate this year’s jobs numbers, thank you!

But I wonder if it would be helpful to include a line estimating the breakeven rate given the level of population growth (or possible decline) you mentioned that is actually expected, even if it’s not factored into the Census yet. A flat breakeven figure for 2025 seems like it’ll just be revised downward, especially with the recent sharp drop in remittances.

I wonder if a prediction market might be helpful here?