Happy New Year, Robin. A sharp roadmap as always.

Your point on the EM Rally (iii) is particularly fascinating. You attribute the blurring lines to eroding institutions in the G10.

From my vantage point tracking the industrial flows inside China, there is a second, physical driver for this EM boom that supports your thesis: The rise of "Shadow Factories."

Much of the capital flow into "Non-China EM" (Vietnam, Mexico, Hungary) is actually the R.I.C.E. System extending its supply chain borders to bypass trade barriers.

• What looks like "De-risking" in the data often looks like "Re-routing" on the ground.

• These EM nations are becoming the assembly nodes for Chinese intermediate goods.

So, you are absolutely right to be bullish on EM, but perhaps not just because they are "catching up" to the G10 institutionally, but because they are integrating with the world's most efficient industrial engine.

In 2026, the trade might be: Long EM = Long the "derivative" of China's manufacturing base.

Looking forward to your analysis this year!