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Sharp point about labor market liberalization being the missing piece. I've spent time tracking EM structural reforms, and there's a clear pattern where countries that moved toward flexible hiring/firing frameworks saw investment inflows shift meaningfully. But the political economy is brutal because those reforms usualy generate short-term job losses before productivity gains show up. Most goverments can't survive that window, so they opt for populist credit expansion instead, which as Turkey shows just defers the pain while making it worse. The fact that growth stalled a decade ago across almost all EM regions tells me this isn't fixable without some external shock forcing the issue.

Jan 4
at
5:51 PM

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