TSMC: revising up – a lot. Quick notes on TSMC before a long report.

Ignore what I wrote yesterday  1) there is no growth slowdown in 1H26. 1Q26 revenue growth re-accelerates to 33% YoY. 2) TSMC actually provided a 2026 guidance.

2026 revenues guidance ~30% in US$. Consensus is at 21%. 1Q26 gross margin guidance: 64%. Consensus is at 59% for FY26. Consensus is 20% too low.

Long-Term US$-revenue growth revised up from 20% to 25% Cagr (2024 to 2029). AI growth revised up from 40% to 50% Cagr.

2026 Capex US$54bn (2025 was 41bn). Given higher revenue growth outlook, higher capex intensity, 2026-28 Capex can reach US$200bn.