The app for independent voices

The divergence between China and non-China EM portfolio flows is striking, but I'd add that the structural break probably started earlier than Q1 2022. The regulatory crackdowns on tech and tutoring in 2021 already signaled that policy risk was being repriced. The Ukraine invasion accelerated an existing trend rather than creating a new one. What's intresting is that this decoupling is happening while China still offers liquidity depth that most other EMs can't match. The fact that investors are walking away despite that suggests this isn't just about geopolitical tail risk but about fundamental doubts on property rights and regulatory predictability. Non-China EM's benefiting here feels less like a vote of confidance and more like process of elimination.

Jan 16
at
6:05 PM

Log in or sign up

Join the most interesting and insightful discussions.