Excellent piece, Robin. You’ve captured the nuance of this "vanishing" risk premium perfectly—it’s rare to see someone map the trade-weighted 10Y basis against the fiscal narrative with this much clarity.

I kept thinking about Arvind’s [Krishnamurthy] framework while reading your section on the US exorbitant privilege. Given your focus on the resurgence of reserve demand despite the fiscal "cracks," his work on the safe-asset demand channel feels like the natural tether here. Even assuming his priors on the Treasury basis are baked into your tracking, it’s a powerful validation of the "convenience" wedge actually holding firm as a shock absorber while the long end of the curve starts to price in the policy tumult.

The way you’ve framed the premium fading to zero as a counterintuitive signal of reserve security—rather than just a cyclical fluke—is spot on. Really looking forward to the follow-up on the long-end risk premia