“Occam’s razor is that we’re seeing a speculative bubble, which - as in all past bubbles - is driven by retail investors, not some official actor.”

I found this conclusion of yours to be incongruous, if by “speculative bubble” you imply an element of the irrational or at least the unjustifiable. Your entire post seems to have argued the opposite. Falling real rates (though at close to 2%, 10y TIPS are still giving one a positive — and apparently — inflation-indexed return) and fear of dollar debasement from inflating away non-indexed public debt will have powered the demand for precious metals. Nothing irrational and unjustifiable about that.

The further and more troubling question is whether debasement also implies selective default and repudiation of the government’s liabilities. Let’s not forget that that weird duo and comrades-in-arms, Bessent and Miran, have both separately hinted at an Latin American solution, circa 1980s, where foreign creditors could have their Treasury holdings redenominated into 100-year bonds at a low fixed rate. The fall of the dollar against even currencies of economies with their own public debt overhang problems would strongly suggest that. Bullion, especially gold, would seem to make eminent sense to many more investors than just the US retail sector.