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Lei's video is worth a watch on this topic:

youtube.com/watch?v=t-S…

Or a shorter summary:

youtube.com/watch?v=ESz…

Basically Xi decided to purge anyone who wasn't entirely on board, and accusations of corruption suffice. (Also of note, the WSJ apparently has insider sources other news does not.)

It's the warlord-and-peasant system writ large: Purge the successful and meritorious so the warlord can stay on top. The fact that this ultimately impoverishes the country (any rising "middle class" or "intellectuals" are primary targets) and guts competent leadership is irrelevant. (Word from China, and I have this from a firsthand source, is that the Covid lockdowns were in fact used to knock back a burgeoning middle class, and teach them to be peasants again.)

When China decided to invade a little bit of India a few years back, the Indian troops filmed it... here came the Chinese soldiers, the Indian troops went BOO! and the Chinese troops literally threw down their rifles and ran like scared rabbits. It was hilarious. I have no great faith in their ability to run into the teeth of anyone else's artillery.

As to South Korea, China will have to go through North Korea first. In my opinion, Fatboy Kim's posturing about "we can hit America with our nukes" is not about America. It is a warning to China: don't try invading us again, because if we can hit America we can sure as hell hit Beijing.

Japan doesn't have nukes, but word around is that they could have nukes by next week, if they had to. (It's not a nuke til you assemble it...)

Since we need to pivot back to our own manufacturing anyway, a little deprivation of Chinese junk might not be such a bad thing. And it would be a huge opportunity for American industry.

However, the idea that China can prevail if it suddenly decides to go to war in the Pacific is... ludicrous. China imports 40% of its food from the U.S. China imports 80% of its energy needs (it has almost no coal or oil of its own, and it greatly relies on imported coal, and China's own agriculture is still largely in the era of peasants wading in rice paddies). China's huge steel industry relies almost totally on imported scrap steel, largely from the U.S. China cannot manufacture high-end computer chips, and for that relies entirely on imports. And China's current wealth depends entirely on exports. (However, only about 15% of America's imports come from China, despite appearances.)

Cut off China's imports of energy, food, and scrap iron, do a bombing run across Shanghai Harbor to destroy the export infrastructure, and China can be defeated in short order with no loss of life or property by anyone else.

Feb 3
at
4:13 PM
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