AMZN: results / guidance inline. Capex up, no surprise. Positive messages and negative market reaction?

The problem is sentiment and cognitive disconnect: some much Capex, not enough growth.  

4Q25 exactly inline with expectations. 1Q26 revenue inline, Operating Profit lower due to a bunch of provisions.  AWS growth accelerating to 24% (19% a year ago). eCommerce & all the rest also accelerating to 12% (9% a year ago).

2025 Capex $132bn or 18% of revenue. 2026 Capex $200bn or ~25% of revenue. Same as the other 3 hyperscalers, Amazon say that capacity is sold out, they need more capacity, more Capex, can’t add fast enough. Same as other hyperscalers, the stock reacts negatively.

Consensus is at reasonable levels with 20% EPS growth in ’26 and ’27. Valuations are average at 28x 2026 EPS. Low expectations and valuations risks. The problem is sentiment and cognitive disconnect: some much Capex, not enough growth.