This is an impressive data crunch and thank you (and Claude) for doing it. An alternative interpretation, though, is that IWW, NEA, and MacDowell aren’t the only path to success. In fact, they are no guarantee of success at all. I think it’s also important to consider (1) how success is defined; and (2) the role of serendipity, i.e. right place, right time, right audience.

Also, the U.S. market is often considered the sine qua non for an accomplished writer, so it isn’t just your 3.4 million seeking entry into trad pub, it is EVERYONE.