The shift from sanctioning shadow fleet ships to banning maritime services is a good case study of the ratchet dynamic, when one approach fails, the response is escalation rather than reassessment.

You note the 20th package 'dodges the shadow fleet problem.' I'd push that further: does the coalition have any mechanism for honestly evaluating whether successive packages are achieving strategic objectives, or has the process become self-perpetuating?

The gap I keep running into is that we have sophisticated analysis of sanctions impact on Russia but almost nothing rigorous on the cumulative cost to coalition cohesion, particularly the asymmetric burden on CEE states who bear proximity costs that Western Europe doesn't.