you trust trump’s statement that the war will be over any minute? given the destruction in the gulf, qatar’s lng facility down, refinery fires, wells shut in which will take time to bring back into production, he can’t keep prices down even if he were telling the truth.

The floor under oil prices is no longer set by the war — it's set by the physical damage. Even if Trump announces a ceasefire at this afternoon's press conference:

Kuwait declared force majeure and cut production. Restarting shut-in wells takes weeks to months depending on how they were shut — you don't just turn a valve. Qatar's Ras Laffan took direct hits. LNG liquefaction trains that go cold require careful, staged restart procedures — weeks minimum, months if equipment was damaged. Bahrain's Sitra refinery is burning. Iraq's production down 70% with storage full and no tankers available. Refineries across the region hit by missiles. Desalination plants damaged on both sides.

None of that repairs on a headline. None of it repairs on a ceasefire. None of it repairs on a Trump Truth Social post. The physical world has its own timeline and it doesn't negotiate.

$84 is the market pricing "war ends today AND everything comes back online immediately." Both conditions are unlikely individually. Together they're fantasy. The floor is probably $85-95 even under the most optimistic resolution scenario, rising to $100+ if the war continues another week, and $120+ if Pottinger [see free press article from trump45’s deputy nsa] is right about Trump finishing the job.